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Sponsored by the Center for Science and Technology Development of the Ministry of Education
Supervised by Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China
An improved Grey-based settlement predictor is promoted. Adopt Grey prediction as a forecasting means because of its fast calculation with a few of data inputs needed. However, our preliminary study shows that the general Grey model, GM (1, 1) is inadequate to handle settlement prediction as its only adapt to the data with exponential law. And the defect was the coefficient’s choice of α and in prediction formula. In this study, the prediction is improved significantly by applying the transformed Grey model and the concept of average system slope. The adaptive value of α in the Grey differential equation is obtained quickly with the average system slope technique. The example show that the prediction accuracy has been improved quite a lot in comparison with general grey model.
Keywords:Grey theory; Average slope; Settlement prediction; Roadbed