Using CA-Markov Models to Simulate the Land-use Changes in Pudong New Area, Shanghai City

Xie Yi; Ma Weichun; Zhang Hao; Chen Weizhen; Chen Mingnan; Zhou Liguo

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Using CA-Markov Models to Simulate the Land-use Changes in Pudong New Area, Shanghai City

Xie Yi 1,Ma Weichun 1,Zhang Hao 1,Chen Weizhen 2,Chen Mingnan 3,Zhou Liguo 1 *

1.Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433

2.College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092

3.Shanghai Investigation Design & Research Institute, Shanghai, 200434

*Correspondence author

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Funding: SRFDP （No.20100071120013）

Opened online:22 January 2014

Accepted by: none

Citation: Xie Yi,Ma Weichun,Zhang Hao.Using CA-Markov Models to Simulate the Land-use Changes in Pudong New Area, Shanghai City[OL]. [22 January 2014] http://en.paper.edu.cn/en_releasepaper/content/4582182

In recent years, much attention has been paid to land-use change simulations for the sake of better displaying the mechanism of land-use change and making out relevant policies. While CA-Markov model is a robust approach in spatial and temporal dynamic modeling of land use/cover changes because geographic information system (GIS) and remote-sensing data can be efficiently incorporated. In this paper, geographical environment factors as well as social-economic factors are combined with land-use current situation data over the past one decade to simulate the future land use patterns of Pudong New Area, Shanghai city. As a newly well-developed district in Shanghai, Pudong New Area is experiencing an increase in both population and built-up areas, which intensify the contradictions of all kinds of land use. CA-Markov model is introduced to simulate the land use changes of the city. After determined the parameter, transformation rules and correcting process of the model, it is applied to the simulation and prediction of Pudong New Area. The good simulation results demonstrate the feasibility of our model, which can reflect the characteristics of the Land use Policy in past years, and guarantee appropriate deployment of the urban land. Moreover, we further used the established CA-Markov model to simulate the land use situation in 2012 and 2018, and therefore provide a reference and solution to sustainable development in the study area.

Keywords:GIS; CA-Markov; Land use; Shanghai

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