Ovarian Cancer Screening Based on Changepoint Mixture Model

ZOU Chenchen; FANG Xiangzhong; ZHAI Guanghe

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Ovarian Cancer Screening Based on Changepoint Mixture Model

ZOU Chenchen,FANG Xiangzhong *,ZHAI Guanghe

School of Mathematical Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871

*Correspondence author

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Funding: the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.Grant No. 11171007）, the Ph. D. Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China（No.No. 20090001110005）

Opened online: 4 October 2012

Accepted by: none

Citation: ZOU Chenchen,FANG Xiangzhong,ZHAI Guanghe.Ovarian Cancer Screening Based on Changepoint Mixture Model[OL]. [ 4 October 2012] http://en.paper.edu.cn/en_releasepaper/content/4490595

Ovarian cancer is one of the most deadly female genital malignant tumors in many regions while an effective early screening strategy can save numerous lives. CA125 and HE4 are tumor markers validated efficacious as well as most commonly used in recent screening research of ovarian cancer. In this paper, we constructed a changepoint and mixture model on the basis of longitudinal CA125 and HE4 levels and estimated parameters using maximum likelihood method with the preclinical duration assumed right-censored, which is more adaptive and yields comparable results in comparison to the Bayesian approach raised by Skates. Consistency of estimators are proved. We also ran a 5-year simulation of sequential screening by calculating the risk of cancer and hypothesis testing the true incidence time respectively. Results show that diagnosis based on hypothesis test performs better in early detection.

Keywords:Longitudinal; Changepoint mixture model; Maximum likelihood estimation; Ovarian caner screening

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