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January 15,2014
Volume 7,Issue 1
Pages -
Subject Area:Energy Economics,Applied Mathematics,Applied Statistical Mathematics,Graph Theory,Fuzzy Mathematics,Applied probability theory

Title: Research of defense expenditure in our country based on Markov switching model

Authors: WANG Haijian, YU Dong
PP: 88-93
Abstract: As a member of the society and economy, defense spending has a close relationship with China's economic growth and external military threat, and it has long been a research focus of national defense economics. In this paper, we have a study on the fluctuation of national defense expenditure in China according to Markov switching model of nonlinear system. Through the empirical, we analysis the characteristics and the cause of the changes in defence spending in China, and put forward the corresponding suggestions for our national defense modernization construction on the international and domestic situation in the new stage and period.
Keywords: national defense economics; Markov switching model; defense expenditure; military spending growth rate

Title: A multi-objective differential evolution algorithm based on max-min distance density for multi-objective portfolio optimization model

Authors: WEI Boyang, ZENG Guowei, JIAO Guimei
PP: 79-87
Abstract: This paper introduces the multi-objective differential evolution (MODE) algorithm based on max-min distance density (MMDD) to solve the multi-objective portfolio optimization model, this improved multi-objective differential evolution algorithm employs the MMDD to stand for the density of individual, redefines the selection operation of differential evolution algorithm and the maintenance regulation of the Pareto candidate solution set, which enables the algorithm to ensure diversity of the Pareto solution set and the convergence of the algorithm. After building a mean-variance bi-objective portfolio optimization model, this study considers the skewness as well, builds mean-variance-skewness tri-objective portfolio optimization model. This paper chooses the yield of 100 Growth Enterprise Market stocks in 69 trading days for empirical analysis, the experimental results indicate that the MODE algorithm could be able to solve the multi-objective portfolio optimization effectively, the Pareto optimal solution set of the tri-objective portfolio model considering skewness could provide more references for investors.
Keywords: finance; multi-objective portfolio optimization model; differential evolution algorithm; max-min distance destiny

Title: Energy consumption intensity analysis method based on the mode of multifactor and multi-order impact analysis

Authors: LIU Xinjian, SONG Hui
PP: 70-78
Abstract: By a deep analysis on the prevail theory and method of multifactor impact analysis, it is thought that the IO-SDA and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) methods which are based on index theory of price index and quantity index have severe logic bugs, and they don't separate interactions from sole actions, and their results are not suitable to economic decision analysis. A multifactor and multi-order impact analysis (MMIA) mode is set up to list the sole and inter-actions separately. The MMIA method is applied to analyze the energy consumption intensity changes in 1997-2005 Chinese economy. From the results we conclude that there are support and inhibitory actions simultaneously and both are significant. The support action of techniques exceeds the total sum of inhibitory actions, and the total second-order interaction is quite remarkable and matched to the total first-order actions.
Keywords: energy economics; energy consumption intensity analysis; multifactor impact analysis; input-output

Title: Mining model for frequent high utility temporal patterns on multiple time series

Authors: WANG Shui, WANG Le
PP: 62-69
Abstract: The frequent pattern mining model in traditional data mining framework neither take into consideration of the temporal factor of time series, nor can it deal with volatile profit information. To address this issue, we propose a framework for mining high utility frequent temporal patterns on multiple time series, provide the formal definitions of mega transaction and mega pattern and define the similarity relationship of two mega patterns based on classification function. Taking stock trade data as an example, a simplified definition of the classification function is provided. This model provides conceptual basis for related financial researches and calculations.
Keywords: quantitative economics; multiple time series; classification function; mega-itemset; similarity of mega patterns; mega frequent pattern

Title: Research on crowding-in and crowding-out effect of foreign direct investment in Guangdong

Authors: CHEN Wei, HAN Zhaozhou
PP: 58-61
Abstract: This paper uses time series methods to establish the model of foreign direct investment(FDI) and domestic capital of Guangdong, from the perspective of the domestic capital supply, through the empirical analysis of Guangdong 1979-2011 year's data to compare how FDI's crowding-in or crowding-out effect influence the capital of Guangdong in the early and mid reform. It makes a conclusion that Guangdong must further adjust the policy response, carry out standardized management on FDI, shift from focusing on the number of FDI to focusing on the quality of FDI, thus to reduce crowding-out effect of FDI on the capital of Guangdong.
Keywords: economic statistics; foreign direct investment; domestic investment; crowding-in effect; crowding-out effect

Title: Dynamic analysis of sheep Brucellosis with stage structure

Authors: LI Mingtao, JIN Zhen, SUN Guiquan
PP: 52-57
Abstract: Combining the current situation and characteristics of sheep Brucellosis in China, and considering direct indirect contact transmission with infected sheep and indirect contact transmission with bacteria in the environment, the sheep Brucellosis dynamical model with stage structure was formulated. The basic reproduction number of this model was obtained, and we proved the existence and uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium when the basic reproduction number was larger than 1. By constructing Lyapunov functions, the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium were proved.
Keywords: applied mathematics; Brucellosis; basic reproduction number; existence and uniqueness; global stability

Title: Design of fixed odds football lotteries' manipulating system

Authors: HE Taixiao, LI Weiguo
PP: 45-51
Abstract: It is important to determine the odds of lottery. Unfortunately, we are lack of literature currently and foreign developed theories are not opened. So it is meaningful to focus on manipulating model. Based on Harry Markowitz Model, a simple and useful model is proposed to deal with odds. The model works well and the result of computer simulation is consistent with theory.
Keywords: mathematical statistics; football lottery; fixed odds; manipulating model

Title: Analysis and suggestion on underreporting and overreporting of China's sixth population census and countermeasures

Authors: ZHANG Yuchun, LIU Jianping
PP: 37-44
Abstract: The paper uses the life table technic to analysis the data of the sixth population census and that of the fifth census. The results show that there exists underreporting in the youngest age groups. The age groups at 16-45 are overreported. Then the essay analyses the reason of underreporting and overreporting: the separate of people from his or her home, the difficulty of recruiting investigators, lack of corporation, etc. Some suggestions has been made to improve the quality of the census: making innovations in investigating floating people, creating new community managemen, strengthening the publicity, pioneering new technology, etc.
Keywords: applied statistical mathematics; population census; overreporting; underreporting in floating population; countermeasures

Title: Unavailability of inference of Selten chain-store paradox

Authors: YANG Liusheng
PP: 33-36
Abstract: Objective：To resolve Selton's chain store paradox and clarify the validity of the backward inductive reasoning. Methods: A thinking principle called the law of logic order is used as a profiling tool to reveal the errors of the related views and demonstrations. Results: 1) The resolution of the chain store paradox and the solution to Selton's original problem are two completely different problems; 2) The backward inductive theory used by Selton in its argument for the chain store paradox is illegal; 3) The argument for the chain store paradox is invalid. Conclusion: The chain store paradox can be resolved, and the unconditional use of the backward induction theory is illegal.
Keywords: operational research; Selton chain-store paradox; law of logic order; backward inductive theory

Title: Orderings of a class of (n, n+1)-graphs with respect to Merrifield-Simmons indices and Hosoya indices

Authors: TIAN Wenwen, TIAN Shuangliang, WANG Wenting
PP: 28-32
Abstract: Merrifield-Simmons index and Hosoya index are the two valuable topological indices in chemical graph theory.The Merrifield-Simmons index of a graph is defined as the total number of the independent sets of the graph and the Hosoya index of a graph is defined as the total number of the matchings of the graph. In this paper, the Merrifield-Simmons index and Hosoya index of the class of (n, n+1)-graphs Bk are investigated. According to the distance between u and v on Cn, their orderings with respect to these two indices are provided.
Keywords: graph theory; (n, n+1)-graph; Merrifield-Simmons index; Hosoya index; ordering

Title: Application of FAHP in evaluation of the textbook of numerical analysis

Authors: WANG Bingxian, HU Kangxiu
PP: 21-27
Abstract: Numerical analysis is one of the professional foundation courses for the undergraduates of mathematical profession in colleges and universities, which plays a decisive role on training students' ability to solve and deal with practical problems. The right choice of textbook of numerical analysis will give teaching and learning of great help. Therefore, the reasonable evaluation system should be established from many side consideration for the evaluation of textbook. In this paper, fuzzy comprehensive analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are combined to establish the evaluation system, and 10 experts and 100 mathematical profession students are invited to evaluate the numerical analysis textbook, which can provide the basis for the choice of textbook in colleges and universities.
Keywords: fuzzy mathematics; numerical analysis; textbook evaluation; analytic hierarchy process

Title: Extention of fuzzy metric spaces

Authors: ZHENG Dingwei
PP: 16-20
Abstract: Fuzzy metric spaces are the generalization of metric spaces. With the help of t-norm and a parameter t, it makes the structures of fuzzy metric spaces be more complicated than those of metric spaces. Meanwhile, both of them have a closed relationship, which allows to restate some classical theorems on metric spaces into the realm of fuzzy metric spaces. In this paper, the extention theorem of metric spaces is generalized to fuzzy metric spaces.
Keywords: fuzzy mathematics; fuzzy metric; extention; topology

Title: Distribution of revertible linear transformation of random variables

Authors: CHEN Bihong
PP: 8-15
Abstract: Let n-dimensional random variables X through reversible linear transfom get n-dimensional variables Y, and the transform matrix be A. The proving method is that it firstly proves the thoerem is true when X doing one elementary transformation, then uses induction to prove it.This paper has proved that the probability density of Y can be gotten by doing reverse transformation from arguments of probability density of X, and then is divided by the determinant of A.
Keywords: probability theory; distribution of function of random variable; linear transformation; local inverse function; conditional analysis

Title: Study on the sunspots and rainfall of Wuhan city based on substep Logistic regression

Authors: MA Yingjun, CHEN Chu, CHEN Yan, ZHAO Dongfang
PP: 1-7
Abstract: The relational model of the rainfall and sunspots of Wuhan city established with the cumulative Logistic regression turns out to be unsatisfactory. Based on the substep Logistic regression idea- “multiple regression into two variable regression”, this paper suggests taking the optimal regression diagnosis criteria to select the critical values and the orders of multiple classes. It is an improvement on the basis of the traditional multiple regression. And the general processes to establish substep Logistic regression model are given. Firstly, this substep Logistic regression model is built to search the relationship between the levels of rainfall and sunplots of Wuhan city during 1951-2010. Secondly, the accuracy of the model is verified to have high accuracy by applying the fitting effect of actual rainfall test model of 2005-2010 years. Then, the influence of sunspots with different periods on rainfall levels is analyzed. Finally, the rainfall of Wuhan city bewteen 2011 and 2015 is forecasted.
Keywords: probability theory; substep Logistic regression; critical value; fitting test; Matlab program

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