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1. Modeling Dependence in Hydrological Frequency Analysis using Copula | |||
XU Yueping,TONG Yangbin,XU Xiao | |||
Hydraulic Engineering 29 December 2011 | |||
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Abstract:Although the importance of multivariate analysis has already been recognized, dependences among different variables are often ignored due to the complexity of problem. It is known that doing so may induce great modeling risk that potentially exist, and will jeopardize the successive hydrosystem analysis, design and management. In this paper, the copula approach is proposed to model the dependence among rainfall data of different durations. Several well-known copulas are chosen and compared, among which the Gaussian copula is found to be the best one. In the meanwhile, rainfall data is simulated using the copula approach and it is found out that the simulated rainfall data preserve quite well the statistical characteristics of actual data. | |||
TO cite this article:XU Yueping,TONG Yangbin,XU Xiao. Modeling Dependence in Hydrological Frequency Analysis using Copula[OL].[29 December 2011] http://en.paper.edu.cn/en_releasepaper/content/4457093 |
2. Uncertainty Analysis of Design Flood Estimation in Ungauged Basins | |||
TONG Yangbin,XU Yueping,XU Xiao | |||
Hydraulic Engineering 22 December 2011 | |||
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Abstract:This paper focused on analyzing different sources of uncertainties in design flood estimation. First, in the analysis of methodology uncertainty, Regional Synthetic Method (RSM) and L-moments Method (LMM) were used to calculate design rainfall depths, thus to estimate design flood. Also, three simple 24-hour-hyetographs were considered, with peak rainfalls at different times. Second, a Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) was employed to estimate the input and parameter uncertainty. A small ungauged basin in Zhejiang Province was used as an example. Results showed that for return periods more than 10 years, the peak flows derived through RSM were larger than that through LMM, indicating that RSM was more conservative and contained more uncertainties. Besides, small change of peak flows for different hyetographs could also be observed. With regard to input and parameter uncertainty, the model was run 1000 times and it was found that the peak flow distribution could be represented by the normal distribution. The statistical characters of simulated peak flow also presented that as the return periods increased, the coefficient of variation grew, slowly though, indicating increased uncertainty. | |||
TO cite this article:TONG Yangbin,XU Yueping,XU Xiao. Uncertainty Analysis of Design Flood Estimation in Ungauged Basins[OL].[22 December 2011] http://en.paper.edu.cn/en_releasepaper/content/4457090 |
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